Fianna Fail set for most seats amid uncertainty over rotating taoiseach re-run

All of the three main parties – Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Sinn Fein – were bullish about their prospects as the first results started to come through on Saturday after Friday’s poll.

However, by Sunday evening, with more than 100 of the Dail parliament’s 174 seats filled, the return of an administration involving Fianna Fail and Fine Gael looked much more likely than a government including Sinn Fein.

The two centre-right parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century, and who shared power in the last coalition, both ruled out governing with Sinn Fein before the election, so it seems unlikely that either would accept that option if they could form a workable coalition.

The other main story of the election is the near wipe out of the Green Party, which was the junior partner in the outgoing coalition.

The party lost 11 of its 12 TDs, including Media minister Catherine Martin, with leader Roderic O’Gorman clinging on to remain its sole representative in the Dail.

If Fianna Fail emerges as the largest party, leader and current deputy premier Micheal Martin would move to begin what could be a protracted negotiation on a programme for government with would-be coalition partners.

Fianna Fail secured the most first preference votes in the proportional representation contest, taking 21.9% to Fine Gael’s 20.8%. Sinn Fein came in third on 19%.

While Sinn Fein’s vote share represented a marked improvement on its disappointing showing in June’s local elections in Ireland, it is still significantly down on the 24.5% poll-topping share it secured in the 2020 general election.

The final breakdown of first preferences also flips the result of Friday night’s exit poll, which suggested Sinn Fein was in front on 21.1%, with Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fail on 19.5%.

While giving a good gauge of the parties’ expected returns, first preference shares do not necessarily correlate to seats won, with those depending on the complex and often unpredictable way transfers are allocated.

Fianna Fail nevertheless appears on track to significantly increase its seat lead over Fine Gael compared with the last election when the parties were much closer.

The outcome in 2020 saw the two parties enter a coalition on the basis that the holder of the Irish premier position would be exchanged midway through the term.

Mr Martin took the role for the first half of the mandate, with Leo Varadkar taking over in December 2022. Current Fine Gael leader Simon Harris succeeded Mr Varadkar as taoiseach when he resigned from the role earlier this year.

On Sunday, Simon Coveney, a former deputy leader of Fine Gael, said a coalition that did not repeat the rotating taoiseach arrangement in some fashion would be a “difficult proposition” for his party.

Mr Martin responded: “Is Simon acting as mediator now or what? Look, it is all for another day.”

Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe said he would be making the case for Mr Harris to have another opportunity to serve as taoiseach.

“I believe he has done extraordinary work during the campaign and in particular in the final days of the campaign he made the decisive difference to our support,” he said.

“In seven months as taoiseach (Mr Harris) has shown me, and I think shown many, he has what it takes to be taoiseach again and I for one strongly believe that case continues to be there for him having the opportunity to serve as taoiseach.”

Mr Martin said there is “very little point” in discussing government formation until seats are finalised.

“I’ll do my own reflections, think about it,” he told the media in Cork.

“I need a long walk – from an exercise point of view, but also to clear the head and think this one through.

“There’s very serious challenges facing the country and we’ve got to keep the country right and put the people before ourselves and before parties.”

Asked if there was trust between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, he said: “I think there’s capacity to get on.”

Speaking on Saturday night, Mr Harris dismissed talk of a Sinn Fein surge and said he was “cautiously optimistic” about where his party will stand after all votes are counted.

If Fianna Fail and Fine Gael return to power, they could need one of the Dail’s smaller parties to reach the required 88 seats to form a majority.

Another option may see the two parties seek the support of independent TDs.

The Social Democrats and the Irish Labour Party, which both had a good election, appear the most realistic junior partners.

Social Democrats deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan said he was delighted with his party’s performance, saying it is now the fourth largest party.

He told the PA news agency he will talk to other parties about forming a government.

“We certainly want to go into government,” he said.

“We will talk to other parties, including Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, but other parties as well, about the areas, the deal breakers that we outlined during the campaign, and to see if we can get agreement on those, because we want to see the next government implementing those proposals that we’ve been putting forward during the election campaign.”

Labour leader Ivana Bacik said she was prioritising building a common platform with the similarly left-leaning Social Democrats and Greens.

“I have said consistently that we are serious about delivering change,” she said.

“Our first priority is to build that common platform on the left.

“We have seen significant gains for us in Labour and we will be coming back with a bigger parliamentary party.”

On Sunday, Green Party leader Mr O’Gorman said he had “no regrets” about going into the three-party government in 2020, but added that the two main coalition partners did the Greens “no favours”.

“We have a very distinct political philosophy from Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, it is harder to see the difference between those two parties, and I think if they go into government again, which looks likely, the difference is more and more difficult to see,” he said.

“We were very different, we took the risk of going in with them, we were able to deliver, but there are political consequences for taking the risk and we suffered them over this weekend.”

Despite the odds being against her party entering power, Mary Lou McDonald expressed determination on Saturday to form a historic government of the left as she insisted Sinn Fein had broken the state’s two-party duopoly.

The counting process in Ireland extends for days due to the complex system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV), where candidates are ranked by preference.

While the Social Democrats have a strong chance of emerging as the largest of the smaller parties, its leader Holly Cairns was already celebrating before a vote was counted, having announced the birth of her baby girl on polling day.

Away from the machinations of government formation, there was focus on Gerard Hutch, an independent candidate in Dublin Central.

Despite a strong showing, Mr Hutch missed out on the final seat in the constituency, with Labour’s Marie Sherlock overtaking him in the final phase of the count.

Last spring, Mr Hutch was found not guilty by the non-jury Special Criminal Court of the murder of David Byrne, in one of the first deadly attacks of the Hutch-Kinahan gangland feud.

Mr Byrne, 33, died after being shot six times at a crowded boxing weigh-in event at the Regency Hotel in February 2016.

A Special Criminal Court judge described Mr Hutch, 61, as the patriarchal figurehead of the Hutch criminal organisation and said he had engaged in “serious criminal conduct”.

There were chaotic scenes inside the RDS count centre in Dublin as Mr Hutch, known by many as “the Monk”, arrived on Sunday afternoon.

He was mobbed by waiting members of the media who pursued him through the building.

He said: “There’s never a guard (member of the Garda) around when you need one.”

Asked why he thought so many people had voted for him, he replied: “Because they are looking for change and if I got elected I would give them the change that they want. I would do what they want.”

He left the count centre in haste shortly before it was confirmed that he had not won a seat.

He ran through the car park, pursued by reporters, photographers and camera operators, before turning on to the main road and continuing to run away.